Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
